Asia's diesel exports to Africa are set to hit at least a four-and-a-half-year high in August, data from ship trackers and trade sources showed, as African buyers sought alternative supplies following a fall in shipments from the Middle East.

The opportunity for Asia to send supplies to Africa came after the US-Iran war disrupted Middle East exports, while Iran-aligned Yemeni Houthis imposed a blockade on Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea and attacked Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery, causing a decline in Saudi exports to Africa.

Asia, including India, will ship 1.8-million to 2-million metric tons (13.4-million to 14.9-million barrels) of diesel to Africa this month, data from Kpler, Vortexa and one trade source showed.

Meanwhile, Middle East diesel exports to Africa in August fell to 600 000 to 800 000 tons, data from LSEG, Kpler and the trade source showed, the lowest in almost nine years, due to persistent shipping risks via the straits of Bab el-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz.

Last year, around 50% of Africa's imports came from the Middle East, according to Kpler data, with 40% of that from Saudi Arabia.

A decrease in refinery runs at some of Saudi Aramco's production sites such as Jazan has further capped its diesel exports, multiple trade sources said.

Shipments from the Jazan refinery to Africa fell to zero in August, down from July's 163 000 tons, Kpler data showed.

ASIA
Traders sent more cargoes to the west due to a wider east-west price spread, or the difference between front-month ICE gasoil and 10ppm sulphur gasoil swaps, in August.

Front-month east-west spreads widened to minus $135 per ton from minus $100 in July.

"Assuming Saudi tankers continue avoiding Bab el-Mandeb due to the Houthi threat, east Africa will mainly need to keep pulling barrels from Asia as Europe won't spare anything with current ultra-negative east-west spreads," said senior oil products analyst at Energy Aspects Alex Yap.

Improving supplies in Asia due to a recovery in refinery runs and a resumption of exports from China are likely to ensure the arbitrage to the West stays viable in the near term, he added.

Asian refiners' diesel margins averaged $66 a barrel in August compared with $61 in July, encouraging plants to maximise output. 

Meanwhile, the benchmark Singapore diesel cash premium has cooled to a month's low of about $4 a barrel due to the rising spot availability.